Gainsbourg
8yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 3 · OR 56
Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#13
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Ayr | Shane Gray | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | Shane Gray | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-07-06 | Ayr | A Mullen | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-06-16 | Carlisle | D Nolan | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2024-11-26 | Southwell | Bruce Lynn | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2024-10-10 | Ayr | A Mullen | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 29/08/2024 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/09/2024 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 30/09/2024 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 10/10/2024 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 16/06/2025 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 11th | 125/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 08/10/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |