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4

Golspie

6yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 4 · OR 62

Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Very consistent and won at Southwell in September before second of 11 at same track 8 days ago. C&D winner and is one to take seriously back down in trip and grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 64 · 1m2f219y Sta 134 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 64 par10/066OR 644 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m4f63y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 63 · 1m4f98y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 63 par27/065OR 636 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m2f42y Sta 133 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 62 · 1m3f24y Std 132 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 62 par6/086OR 625 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 1m3f23y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 1m3f23y Std 159 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 60 par17/096OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 29/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 62 · 1m4f51y Std 132 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Southwell 22/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 62 · 1m3f24y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/10/2026 · OR 62 par22/105OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-22SouthwellPaddy Bradley52nd1st+1
2026-09-29WolverhamptonPaddy Bradley64th4th0
2026-09-17SouthwellMr Lucas Murphy61st1st0
2026-08-31SouthwellBilly Loughnane53rd2nd+1
2026-08-06SouthwellD Nolan63rd3rd0
2026-07-25NewcastleC Horgan66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0625/0717/0922/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/06/20264th17/255%77%+0.22
13/06/20264th17/255%57%+0.02
27/06/20263rd17/255%82%+0.27
25/07/20266th13/266%58%-0.07
06/08/20263rd4/179%80%+0.01
31/08/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
17/09/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
29/09/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
22/10/20262nd18/15%90%+0.85