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10

Hill O Rue

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 2 · OR 55

Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has operated below last season's form but turned in best effort of the season when fourth of 9 over C&D 28 days ago on just second all-weather start and merits some respect from 6 lb below last winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 07/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 62 · 1m2f Goo 129 · beat its mark07/07/2025 · OR 62 par7/076OR 624 @ Ripon 29/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 62 · 1m4f10y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Beverley 23/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 1m1f207y Sft 134 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 61 par23/096OR 615 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 64 · 1m2f1y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/04/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m2f42y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 63 par22/055OR 636 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m2f Gd 142 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 60 · 1m3f39y Goo 138 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 60 par27/086OR 606 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 58 · 1m2f5y Gd 136 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Newcastle 02/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m2f42y Std 134 · beat its mark02/10/2026 · OR 56 par2/106OR 56projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02NewcastleT Eaves64th4th0
2026-09-17PontefractShane Gray66th6th0
2026-08-27CarlisleK Stott65th5th0
2026-07-06AyrT Eaves612th12th0
2026-05-22HaydockT Eaves57th6th+1
2026-04-20RedcarO McSweeney59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0720/0427/082/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/07/20255th7/163%67%+0.04
29/07/20254th7/163%0%-0.63
23/09/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
20/04/20269th14/126%0%-0.26
22/05/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
06/07/202612th33/10%0%0.00
27/08/20265th10/147%33%-0.14
17/09/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
02/10/20264th10/147%63%+0.15