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Rory's Gold

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 6 · OR 64

Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won by a wide margin over C&D in September but was only tenth of 13 in a handicap at Ayr 22 days ago, unsuited by the heavy ground and meeting some trouble. Returns to the scene of his victory faced with an 8 lb higher mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f195y Goo 132 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 62 par29/056OR 626 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 60 · 7f213y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 1m Sft 141 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par19/066OR 605 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 60 · 7f14y Sta 137 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 60 par31/076OR 606 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m3f39y Goo 136 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 56 · 1m2f5y Gd 134 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 56 par17/096OR 566 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 56 · 1m2f42y Std 134 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Ayr 08/10/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 64 · 1m Hvy 139 · below its mark08/10/2026 · OR 64 par8/106OR 64projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08AyrAmie Waugh610th10th0
2026-09-25NewcastleAmie Waugh61st1st0
2026-09-17PontefractAmie Waugh63rd3rd0
2026-08-27CarlisleAmie Waugh67th7th0
2026-07-31NewcastleAmie Waugh68th8th0
2026-07-01ThirskAmie Waugh58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/051/0717/098/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20266th40/10%38%+0.38
14/06/20268th50/10%59%+0.59
19/06/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
01/07/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
31/07/20268th9/153%13%-0.40
27/08/20267th20/10%25%+0.25
17/09/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25
25/09/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
08/10/202610th11/271%25%-0.46