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13

Sassy Glory

5yo Mare · 9-2 · Draw 11 · OR 52

Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#8

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won here in June and early September but patchy record since and ran badly over 1m here earlier in the month. Hard to predict.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 49 · 1m4f13y Gd 129 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 49 par11/056OR 496 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 47 · 1m1f207y Goo 127 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 47 · 1m5y Sta 130 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 47 par25/066OR 476 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 50 · 7f14y Sta 135 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 50 par8/086OR 506 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 49 · 1m5y Std 130 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m5y Std 129 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 54 par25/096OR 545 @ Redcar 03/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 54 · 1m2f1y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Newcastle 12/10/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 53 · 1m5y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 53 par12/105OR 53projClass-projected finish: 7th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12NewcastleRhys Elliott510th9th+1
2026-10-03RedcarRhys Elliott52nd1st+1
2026-09-25NewcastleC J Whiteley69th9th0
2026-09-02NewcastleRhys Elliott61st1st0
2026-08-08AyrJason Hart65th5th0
2026-07-25NewcastleRhys Elliott612th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0525/0725/0912/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength9%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20269th18/15%38%+0.33
16/06/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10
25/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
25/07/202612th10/382%8%-0.74
08/08/20265th11/271%64%-0.07
02/09/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
25/09/20269th10/147%20%-0.27
03/10/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
12/10/202610th20/10%10%+0.10