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11

Wicklow Way

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 7 · OR 55

Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice over C&D in classified company, most recently in July, but he's yet to crack a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 53 · 7f Goo 126 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 53 par17/106OR 536 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 50 par5 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 54 · 1m2f50y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 54 par18/045OR 546 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m1f104y Std 130 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m5y Std 133 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 53 par2/066OR 536 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 52 · 1m100y Goo 132 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 51 · 1m1f207y Goo 128 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 51 par14/076OR 516 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 50 · 1m2f42y Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m2f Goo 140 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 55 par8/086OR 55projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08AyrJ Garritty64th4th0
2026-07-31NewcastleJ Garritty61st1st0
2026-07-14BeverleyJ Garritty67th7th0
2026-06-16BeverleyCam Hardie63rd3rd0
2026-06-02NewcastleJ Garritty69th9th0
2026-05-11WolverhamptonOlivia Tubb69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1011/0514/078/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength65%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/202510th80/10%0%0.00
12/03/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
18/04/202614th9/153%0%-0.53
11/05/20269th8/158%20%-0.38
02/06/20269th13/266%33%-0.32
16/06/20263rd11/142%71%+0.29
14/07/20267th20/10%25%+0.25
31/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
08/08/20264th7/282%73%-0.09