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12

Yaaser

8yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 13 · OR 53

Newcastle · Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Tumbling down the weights and didn't shape too badly when third of 14 in handicap over C&D 35 days ago, when back up to this trip for the first time since spring 2022. Persistent slow-starting issues leave him hard to trust, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 7f15y Gd 141 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 63 par22/066OR 635 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 61 · 6f195y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 59 · 7f50y GF 139 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 59 par20/076OR 595 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m68y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f50y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 58 par8/085OR 586 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f50y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m68y Sft 135 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 57 par2/096OR 575 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 55 · 1m Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 55 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 55 par25/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25NewcastleP Mulrennan63rd3rd0
2026-09-18AyrLauren Young58th7th+1
2026-09-02HamiltonLauren Young68th8th0
2026-08-10AyrLauren Young64th4th0
2026-08-08AyrLauren Young58th7th+1
2026-08-01HamiltonLauren Young53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/061/082/0925/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength60%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20269th5/174%0%-0.74
09/07/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
20/07/20263rd8/158%60%+0.02
01/08/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
08/08/20268th5/174%36%-0.37
10/08/20264th11/271%73%+0.02
02/09/20268th17/255%22%-0.33
18/09/20268th16/116%0%-0.16
25/09/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58