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3

Keogie

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 76

Newcastle · All-Weather Championship Is Back Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to win in 7 Irish maiden starts for Noel Meade but went close when beaten a short-head in 14-runner event at Gowran Park in September. Respectable fourth of 14 over 1m at Listowel last time and now starts out for a new yard switched to all-weather. Holds strong form claims on best effort.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲4
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -4.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 6f Hvy 13315/03C8C8 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 1m Sft 13422/04C8C8 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f61y Sft 1343/05C8C8 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 76 · 5f Yie 134 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 76 par16/05C8OR 76C8 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 73 · 6f Yie 134 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 73 par30/08C8OR 73C8 @ Gowran Park 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 71 · 7f Yie 134 · below its mark01/09/2026 · OR 71 par1/09C8OR 71C8 @ Listowel 21/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 76 · 1m Yie 134 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 76 par21/09C8OR 76projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21ListowelAdam Caffrey?4th9th−4
2026-09-01Gowran ParkSiobhan Rutledge?2nd7th−4
2026-08-30CorkAdam Caffrey?6th11th−4
2026-05-16NavanAdam Caffrey?8th13th−4
2026-05-03SligoJ M Sheridan?3rd8th−4
2026-04-22Gowran ParkColin Keane?11th16th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0316/0521/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20262nd16/116%93%+0.78
22/04/202611th5/174%29%-0.45
03/05/20263rd11/271%71%+0.00
16/05/20268th11/142%42%-0.00
30/08/20266th40/10%67%+0.67
01/09/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
21/09/20264th3/184%77%-0.07