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3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 10

Newcastle · All-Weather Championship Is Back Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f 14y

#7

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed promise on debut over 7f at Redcar in September, denied a run and finished with running left, but was caught out by drop back to 5f here earlier in the month. Return to this trip will suit but others still preferred.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Redcar 23/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 7f Gd 13323/0944 @ Newcastle 16/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 5f Std 13316/104projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16NewcastleConnor Beasley45th5th0
2026-09-23RedcarConnor Beasley45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 71/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -86.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
16/10/20265th7/163%20%-0.43