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Lady Caroline Lamb

2yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 3 · OR 75

Newcastle · AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery · 1m 5y

#5

Rank

Odds

85/40

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Beverley in June over 7.5f then finished seventh in listed company at Sandown. Shaped better than the result suggests when fifth of 7 in a nursery at Kempton 16 days ago after a 12-week break and could be a serious player with that outing under her belt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼2
Strength96%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS10/0633 @ Beverley 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS23/0631 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 77 par23/071OR 774 @ Kempton 14/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/10/2026 · OR 78 par14/104OR 78projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-14KemptonJ Mitchell45th4th+1
2026-07-23SandownRob Hornby17th2nd+4
2026-06-23BeverleyConnor Beasley31st-1th+2
2026-06-10KemptonH Crouch33rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0623/0623/0714/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 73/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength82%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/06/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04
23/06/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
23/07/20267th28/10%14%+0.14
14/10/20265th11/142%33%-0.09