Pequenita
2yo Filly · 9-7 · Draw 4 · OR 73
Newcastle · AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery · 1m 5y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Leicester | P J McDonald | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Kempton | Oisin Murphy | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Lingfield | Oisin Murphy | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | P Mulrennan | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | Oisin Murphy | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |