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4

Xochipilli

2yo Colt · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 72

Newcastle · AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery · 1m 5y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form when made frame all 3 starts over 7f, including when fourth of 13 in nursery at Kempton 30 days ago, hampered after 3f but keeping on well late. Steps up to 1m with first-time cheekpieces applied and could take a step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 7f1y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS22/0844 @ Kempton 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0945 @ Kempton 30/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 72 · 7f Sta 132 · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 72 par30/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30KemptonTom Marquand54th4th0
2026-09-04KemptonBilly Loughnane43rd2nd+1
2026-08-22LingfieldTaylor Fisher44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/084/0930/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -25.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20264th20/10%73%+0.73
04/09/20263rd5/174%83%+0.10
30/09/20264th9/153%75%+0.22