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3

Believeinmenow

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 67

Newcastle · Midnite Built Different Handicap · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Good run when second of 14 to Storm Esme over C&D in September when not clear run under 2f out, but only fourth of 5 at Southwell without hood over 5f last time. Lightly raced at 6f and headgear now reapplied so could take a hand.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 70 · 5f10y Goo 135 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 70 par5/045OR 705 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 69 · 4f214y Std 135 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 69 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 69 par4/055OR 695 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 72 · 6f2y GS 136 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 72 · 5f3y Goo 133 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 72 par2/065OR 725 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 70 · 5f Gd 136 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 68 · 5f Sta 134 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 68 par31/075OR 685 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 66 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 66 par4 @ Southwell 24/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 68 · 4f215y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 68 par24/094OR 68projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24SouthwellAlex Jary44th3rd+1
2026-09-05NewcastleJack Nicholls52nd2nd0
2026-07-31NewcastleFaye McManoman54th4th0
2026-06-19RedcarFaye McManoman59th9th0
2026-06-02PontefractJack Callan53rd3rd0
2026-05-16DoncasterFaye McManoman57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0416/0531/0724/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength28%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20264th6/168%63%-0.06
23/04/20262nd13/266%75%+0.09
04/05/20262nd16/116%92%+0.77
16/05/20267th4/179%14%-0.65
02/06/20263rd16/583%67%-0.16
19/06/20269th10/382%0%-0.82
31/07/20264th5/174%73%-0.01
05/09/20262nd9/153%92%+0.40
24/09/20264th9/488%25%-0.63