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Brave Traveller

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 1 · OR 67

Newcastle · Midnite Built Different Handicap · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over C&D last December and has run well several times here since, including when second of 12 in July. Excused his flop on turf in August and could do better back on all-weather if ready to go after 83 days off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 24/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 62 · 5f Std 133 · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 62 par24/116OR 626 @ Newcastle 05/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 62 par5 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 65 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 65 par21/035OR 655 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 133 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 64 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 64 par19/056OR 645 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 69 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 68 · 5f Sta 133 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 68 par25/065OR 685 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 67 · 5f Sta 133 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 67 · 5f217y Goo 127 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 67 par8/085OR 67projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08RedcarCam Hardie55th5th0
2026-07-31NewcastleCam Hardie52nd2nd0
2026-06-25NewcastleO McSweeney53rd3rd0
2026-06-05ThirskP Mulrennan57th7th0
2026-05-19NewcastleP Mulrennan62nd3rd−1
2026-04-08CatterickP Mulrennan59th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/118/0425/068/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/11/20252nd11/893%80%-0.13
05/12/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
21/03/20265th11/486%33%-0.52
08/04/20269th8/158%11%-0.47
19/05/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
05/06/20267th9/153%50%-0.03
25/06/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19
31/07/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
08/08/20265th18/15%33%+0.28