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2

Ennoble

3yo Colt · 9-8 · Draw 3 · OR 69

Newcastle · Midnite Built Different Handicap · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ex-Irish colt who has gone the right way on all-weather for current stable, including when short-head second of 6 in novice here over 5f 14 days ago. One to take seriously back up to 6f for handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 24/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f Gd 13124/05C8C8 @ Curragh 27/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 133C8 @ Cork 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 13330/09C8C8 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 78 · 5f Sft 133 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 78 parC8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 75 · 5f3y Gd 134 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 75 par3/07C8OR 754 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 71 · 6f1y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 67 · 6f20y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 67 par15/094OR 674 @ Newcastle 16/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 5f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 65 par16/104OR 65projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16NewcastleCam Hardie42nd1st+1
2026-09-15WolverhamptonCam Hardie43rd2nd+1
2026-09-02NewcastleHarry Russell44th3rd+1
2026-07-03BellewstownDylan Browne McMonagle?5th9th−3
2026-05-16NavanDylan Browne McMonagle?−3
2025-10-22NavanDylan Browne McMonagle?6th10th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0522/1015/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20255th6/168%50%-0.18
27/06/20257th14/126%40%+0.14
30/09/20253rd10/382%67%-0.16
22/10/20256th6/492%17%-0.75
03/07/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
02/09/20264th14/126%67%+0.40
15/09/20263rd40/10%82%+0.82
16/10/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09