Rousham
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 5 · OR 62
Newcastle · Midnite Built Different Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Newcastle | Faye McManoman | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-10-01 | Newcastle | Faye McManoman | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | Alex Jary | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Nottingham | Faye McManoman | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | Faye McManoman | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | Faye McManoman | 6 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 14/06/2026 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 01/10/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |
| 20/10/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 54% | +0.49 |