5
Storm Esme
3yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 2 · OR 67
Newcastle · Midnite Built Different Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Southwell | D Allan | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | Sean Kirrane | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | D Fentiman | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | D Allan | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | D Allan | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | D Allan | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 15/05/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 06/10/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |