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4

Against The Wind

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 9 · OR 91

Newcastle · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran well when third at Southwell on return in March. Not threatened in 4 turf starts since but did fare better than of late when ninth of 21 in the Portland at Doncaster latest. Has looked more reliable on all-weather and now dipped below his last winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 11.6 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Southwell 13/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 93 · 4f214y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 93 par13/072OR 932 @ Southwell 28/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 102 · 4f214y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 102 par2 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 102 · 4f214y Sta 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 102 par21/092OR 102C0 @ ParisLongchamp 05/10/2025 · Pos 17th of 17 · OR 102 · 4f213y Ver 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 102 par2 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 101 · 4f214y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 101 par21/032OR 1012 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 101 · 5f1y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR 100 · 5f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 100 par14/052OR 1002 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 18th of 21 · OR 97 · 5f89y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 21 · OR 93 · 5f143y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 93 par12/092OR 93projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12DoncasterK Stott29th8th+1
2026-08-19YorkK Stott218th17th+1
2026-05-14YorkJack Nicholls221th20th+1
2026-04-04MusselburghK Stott211th10th+1
2026-03-21SouthwellK Stott23rd2nd+1
2025-10-05ParisLongchampK Stott?17th14th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/075/1014/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
28/08/20256th3/184%62%-0.23
21/09/20253rd8/158%85%+0.27
05/10/202517th80/10%0%0.00
21/03/20263rd13/266%82%+0.16
04/04/202611th25/10%23%+0.23
14/05/202621st14/126%0%-0.26
19/08/202618th66/10%15%+0.15
12/09/20269th66/10%60%+0.60