6
Alligator Alley
9yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 88
Newcastle · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | Kaiya Fraser | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Redcar | Kaiya Fraser | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Southwell | L Morris | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Wolverhampton | L Morris | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-15 | Wolverhampton | L Morris | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-11 | Chelmsford City | L Morris | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 69/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 18/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 15/12/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 20/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |