7
Elyam
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 13 · OR 88
Newcastle · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Southwell | Darragh Keenan | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | Jason Hart | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-08-24 | Windsor | S M Levey | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2024-08-02 | Newmarket | J Mitchell | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2024-07-20 | Newbury | Jim Crowley | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 69/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength98%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 02/08/2024 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 24/08/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |