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5

Gaeli

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 2 · OR 90

Newcastle · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped up on his form in Italy when winning off 6 lb higher at Southwell on return in March. However, well held last 4 starts, including both outings for this yard (pulled hard).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength35%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 96 · 4f214y Std 136 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 96 par4/033OR 962 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 102 · 4f214y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 102 par21/032OR 1022 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 102 · 5f21y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 102 par18/052OR 1022 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 100 · 5f21y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 100 par8/062OR 1002 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 98 · 5f Sta 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 98 par26/062OR 982 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 96 · 5f GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 96 par8/082OR 963 @ Hamilton 28/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 5f7y Sft 140 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 92 par28/093OR 92projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28HamiltonK Stott35th5th0
2026-08-08AscotYutaka Take210th9th+1
2026-06-26NewcastleMarco Ghiani214th13th+1
2026-06-08WindsorMarco Ghiani26th5th+1
2026-05-18WindsorJack Gilligan25th4th+1
2026-03-21SouthwellJack Gilligan26th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/038/0628/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/03/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
21/03/20266th9/276%55%-0.22
18/05/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
08/06/20266th8/158%0%-0.58
26/06/202614th14/126%0%-0.26
08/08/202610th50/10%0%0.00
28/09/20265th100/10%50%+0.50