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1

Germanic

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 7 · OR 97

Newcastle · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

78%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

All 3 career wins at Newcastle, including over C&D in January. Returned with 2 heavy defeats on turf this summer but was a back-to-form third at Leicester last time. Not taken lightly back at this venue, though career best probably required off current mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 21st of 27 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 96 par2/082OR 962 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 93 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 93 par2 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 90 · 5f3y Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 90 par25/102OR 903 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 86 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 86 par2 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 92 · 6f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 92 par16/012OR 922 @ Newcastle 24/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 5f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 19th of 23 · OR 94 · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 94 par28/072OR 943 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 91 · 5f7y GS 141 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 91 par4 @ Leicester 06/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 87 · 5f Goo 137 · beat its mark06/10/2026 · OR 87 par6/104OR 87projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-06LeicesterLewis Edmunds43rd4th−1
2026-08-21HamiltonRyan Sexton311th11th0
2026-07-28GoodwoodRyan Sexton219th18th+1
2026-01-24NewcastleRowan Scott21st0th+1
2026-01-16NewcastleRowan Scott29th8th+1
2025-11-17NewcastleRyan Sexton31st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0817/1128/076/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength58%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/202521st66/10%23%+0.23
27/09/20256th14/126%44%+0.18
25/10/202511th28/10%9%+0.09
17/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
16/01/20269th11/271%38%-0.33
24/01/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
28/07/202619th80/10%18%+0.18
21/08/202611th16/116%0%-0.16
06/10/20263rd9/153%80%+0.27