Michaela's Boy
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 85
Newcastle · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Southwell | Callum Hutchinson | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-12 | Lingfield | Charles Bishop | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | Marco Ghiani | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | L Morris | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yarmouth | Marco Ghiani | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | Jack Callan | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/09/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |