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11

Paddy's Day

6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 12 · OR 79

Newcastle · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had a tremendous 2025 on all-weather, winning 6 times, all over C&D. Hasn't quite hit the same heights this year, however, only third in a weaker race than this on his return to this venue 2 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 90 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 90 par27/033OR 903 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 89 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 88 · 5f3y GF 133 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 88 par6/063OR 882 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 87 · 5f Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Doncaster 03/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 87 · 5f3y GF 140 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 87 par3/073OR 873 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 85 · 5f Sft 130 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 84 · 5f3y Gd 132 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 84 par13/093OR 844 @ Southwell 26/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 82 · 4f215y Std 135 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 16/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 80 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark16/10/2026 · OR 80 par16/104OR 80projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16NewcastleAlex Jary43rd4th−1
2026-09-26SouthwellAlex Jary46th7th−1
2026-09-13DoncasterAlex Jary36th6th0
2026-08-29BeverleyAlex Jary39th9th0
2026-07-03DoncasterAlex Jary33rd3rd0
2026-06-26NewcastleAlex Jary27th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0326/0613/0916/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength25%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20265th16/116%69%+0.53
13/04/20267th15/261%33%-0.27
06/06/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
26/06/20267th8/158%54%-0.04
03/07/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
29/08/20269th25/10%0%0.00
13/09/20266th40/10%67%+0.67
26/09/20266th4/179%44%-0.35
16/10/20263rd6/168%80%+0.12