Vintage Clarets
7yo Gelding · 8-5 · Draw 4 · OR 77
Newcastle · Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Catterick | Ethan Tindall | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | Warren Fentiman | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | Ethan Tindall | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Pontefract | Ethan Tindall | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | Warren Fentiman | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | Warren Fentiman | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/05/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 95% | +0.53 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 17/10/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |