3
Blue To Blue
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 2 · OR 75
Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength61%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Market Rasen | B S Hughes | 3 | +2 | ||
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | D Allan | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | Yudish Geerdharry | 3 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | Billy Garritty | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | Billy Garritty | 3 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | Jack Nicholls | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 14/04/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 27/06/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 11/08/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 03/09/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |