IvyArcIvyArc
4

Camino Del Ray

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 4 · OR 71

Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to best fitted with headgear when winning at Southwell in March but has failed to reproduce that in 3 subsequent outings, though he fared a bit better when fourth back there last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 01/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 1331/0555 @ Carlisle 19/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 79 · 6f195y GF 135 · below its mark19/05/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Southwell 17/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 77 · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/06/2025 · OR 77 par17/064OR 774 @ Redcar 20/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 7f219y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Southwell 05/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m13y Std 134 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 72 par5/025OR 725 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 70 · 1m13y Std 135 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Wolverhampton 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 73 · 1m142y Std 133 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 73 par9/045OR 734 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 73 · 7f219y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Southwell 03/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 72 · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 72 par3/104OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03SouthwellDylan Hogan44th3rd+1
2026-08-22RedcarJason Hart48th7th+1
2026-04-09WolverhamptonRyan Sexton54th4th0
2026-03-10SouthwellRowan Scott51st1st0
2026-02-05SouthwellTom Kiely-Marshall56th6th0
2025-07-20RedcarTom Kiely-Marshall45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0520/079/043/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20252nd10/147%86%+0.38
19/05/20257th9/276%40%-0.36
17/06/20256th33/10%0%0.00
20/07/20255th16/116%20%+0.04
05/02/20266th28/10%50%+0.50
10/03/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
09/04/20264th10/382%0%-0.82
22/08/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
03/10/20264th28/10%75%+0.75