8
Coramento
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 14 · OR 70
Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Newcastle | Connor Beasley | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | Jack Nicholls | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | O J Orr | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Newcastle | Joanna Mason | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Southwell | Rossa Ryan | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Newcastle | Callum Rodriguez | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 31/01/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 02/10/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |