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Cosmos Raj

8yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 9 · OR 73

Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

61%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to form when capitalising on a much reduced mark at Redcar in August and went in again from the front at that same track (in this headgear) last month. Not in same form 24 hours later at Beverley but wasted no time bouncing back when second at Wolverhampton. Cheekpieces back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m6y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 72 par29/064OR 725 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 69 · 7f218y Goo 129 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 69 par6 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m2f43y GF 135 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 65 par1/086OR 655 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 65 · 1m6y Goo 125 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 63 · 1m2f1y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 63 par22/085OR 635 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m1f170y Sft 133 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Redcar 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 66 · 7f219y Goo 136 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 66 par15/095OR 665 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m1f207y Goo 135 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Wolverhampton 05/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 73 · 1m1f104y Std 137 · beat its mark05/10/2026 · OR 73 par5/105OR 73projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-05WolverhamptonMark Winn52nd2nd0
2026-09-16BeverleyD Tudhope58th8th0
2026-09-15RedcarD Tudhope51st1st0
2026-09-01RiponC J Whiteley54th4th0
2026-08-22RedcarBilly Garritty51st1st0
2026-08-05PontefractC J Whiteley54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/065/0815/095/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +4.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/06/20266th66/10%17%+0.17
16/07/20266th40/10%0%0.00
01/08/20264th7/163%40%-0.23
05/08/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
22/08/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
01/09/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
15/09/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
16/09/20268th3/184%22%-0.62
05/10/20262nd28/10%90%+0.90