IvyArcIvyArc
14

Criminal Shore

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 1 · OR 66

Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y

#3

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Infrequent winner but did score over C&D in June off 4 lb higher. Ran poorly over 7f here 18 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 70 · 1m5y Std 130 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 70 par2/065OR 704 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 70 · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 73 · 7f219y Goo 137 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 73 par19/075OR 735 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 73 · 6f212y Goo 134 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 72 · 7f6y GF 132 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 72 par15/085OR 725 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 70 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 70 par5/095OR 705 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 69 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Newcastle 12/10/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 68 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 68 par12/105OR 68projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12NewcastleD Tudhope510th10th0
2026-09-25NewcastleMark Winn57th7th0
2026-09-05NewcastleC J Whiteley55th5th0
2026-09-02NewcastleMark Winn53rd3rd0
2026-08-15DoncasterC J Whiteley56th6th0
2026-08-07HaydockMark Winn511th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/067/085/0912/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
12/06/202617th20/10%16%+0.16
19/07/20266th9/276%17%-0.60
07/08/202611th40/10%0%0.00
15/08/20266th22/10%55%+0.55
02/09/20263rd4/179%80%+0.01
05/09/20265th5/493%43%-0.51
25/09/20267th10/147%40%-0.07
12/10/202610th11/271%25%-0.46