IvyArcIvyArc
6

D Flawless

5yo Mare · 9-9 · Draw 10 · OR 71

Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y

#4

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner here (6f) in March and has continued in good heart, including when starting out for this yard here 4 weeks ago after 3 months off. Won her maiden over this trip as a 3-y-o.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Thirsk 17/05/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 76 par17/053OR 764 @ Newcastle 13/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 72 · 5f Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 72 par4 @ Southwell 04/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 69 · 4f214y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/01/2026 · OR 69 par4/014OR 695 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 69 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 68 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 68 par27/035OR 685 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 141 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 73 · 5f3y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 73 par21/064OR 734 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 73 · 5f182y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Newcastle 01/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 72 · 6f Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 72 par1/104OR 72projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01NewcastleJason Hart46th5th+1
2026-07-09CarlisleJason Hart43rd2nd+1
2026-06-21PontefractJason Hart45th4th+1
2026-06-02PontefractJason Hart54th4th0
2026-03-27NewcastleJason Hart51st1st0
2026-02-06NewcastleJason Hart56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/056/0221/061/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength3%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/202512th40/10%0%0.00
13/12/20257th33/10%33%+0.33
04/01/20263rd50/10%75%+0.75
06/02/20266th9/153%50%-0.03
27/03/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
02/06/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
21/06/20265th9/153%50%-0.03
09/07/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
01/10/20266th17/255%38%-0.18