10
Director's Cut
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 11 · OR 72
Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength59%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | Daniel Muscutt | 4 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | J Mitchell | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Doncaster | James Doyle | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nottingham | Luke Catton | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-11-27 | Newcastle | Luke Catton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Wolverhampton | Shane Foley | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 55/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 29/06/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 11/09/2026 | 16th | 80/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |