12
Lone Piper
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 8 · OR 68
Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y
#9
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Musselburgh | Miss Sophie Dobson | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Windsor | S M Levey | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Doncaster | P J McDonald | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-06-06 | Thirsk | Callum Rodriguez | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Newbury | J Mitchell | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2024-09-16 | Windsor | J Mitchell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 81/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2024 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 04/07/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 26/07/2024 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 16/09/2024 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 12/04/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 06/06/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 10/07/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 08/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 12/10/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |