7
Mwafaq
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 6 · OR 71
Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Pontefract | Warren Fentiman | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | Ethan Tindall | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | Ethan Tindall | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hamilton | Ethan Tindall | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | Ethan Tindall | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | Tom Kiely-Marshall | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 05/10/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 33% | -0.22 |