IvyArcIvyArc
2

Project Geofin

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 3 · OR 72

Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded back-to-back wins last summer. Standout effort from 4 starts this season when third in Class 5 event at Doncaster (had won race the previous year) in August. Struggled in the mud both starts since but will find this more suitable (twice a winner here). Cheekpieces on and back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 14/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m2f43y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 77 par14/094OR 774 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 77 · 1m2f56y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 77 par3 @ Redcar 04/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 77 · 1m2f1y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/11/2025 · OR 77 par4/113OR 774 @ Newcastle 27/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m2f42y Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 78 par3 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 77 · 1m2f1y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 77 par30/043OR 774 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 76 · 1m3f188y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m2f43y GF 133 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 75 par15/085OR 755 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m1f207y Sft 142 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ York 10/10/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 74 · 1m2f56y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 74 par10/104OR 74projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10YorkP J McDonald413th12th+1
2026-08-29BeverleyP J McDonald58th8th0
2026-08-15DoncasterDonagh Murphy53rd3rd0
2026-05-13YorkP J McDonald410th9th+1
2026-04-30RedcarP J McDonald37th5th+2
2025-11-27NewcastleP J McDonald49th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0927/1115/0810/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20257th13/266%25%-0.41
11/10/20254th28/10%83%+0.83
04/11/20252nd10/147%88%+0.40
27/11/20259th7/282%11%-0.70
30/04/20267th5/174%0%-0.74
13/05/202610th25/10%44%+0.44
15/08/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19
29/08/20268th17/255%0%-0.55
10/10/202613th28/10%33%+0.33