Regal Desire

3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 12 · OR 73

Newcastle · AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap · 1m 5y

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ RUNS TO MARK

Move▬

Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.5

Today: 5

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-05	Pontefract	Jason Hart	5	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-09-05	Newcastle	Cam Hardie	4	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-06-23	Beverley	Ben Robinson	5	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-21	Southwell	Cam Hardie	4	2nd	1st	+1	9.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 26/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -21.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/05/2026	2nd	150/1	0%	90%	+0.90
23/06/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	80%	-0.02
05/09/2026	9th	6/1	68%	0%	-0.68
05/10/2026	8th	22/1	0%	42%	+0.42