12
Bellagio Man
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 58
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Newcastle | Cam Hardie | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | Newcastle | Cam Hardie | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Wolverhampton | Cam Hardie | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | Cam Hardie | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Southwell | Cam Hardie | 6 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Newcastle | Cam Hardie | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 7-11 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/11/2025 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.39 |
| 01/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/10/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 12/10/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |