6
Bright
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 10 · OR 67
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength54%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Nottingham | Ray Dawson | 5 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | Darragh Keenan | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | Billy Loughnane | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | Paddy Bradley | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | Zac Lloyd | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/02/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 08/05/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 61% | +0.61 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 15/08/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 01/10/2026 | 13th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |