4
Great
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 13 · OR 67
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Newcastle | O J Orr | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | Pontefract | Shane Gray | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | Rowan Scott | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | Shane Gray | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | Jonathan England | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | Shane Gray | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 05/10/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 12/10/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |