8
Hectic
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 3 · OR 65
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Newcastle | William Pyle | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-09-24 | Southwell | Billy Garritty | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | J Garritty | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | S Donohoe | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | J Garritty | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | Miss Pippa Brown | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 09/05/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 17/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 11% | -0.68 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |
| 24/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 20/10/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |