5
Invincible Ruby
4yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 1 · OR 67
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Southwell | A Mullen | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | A Mullen | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | Jack Nicholls | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Haydock | H Crouch | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | A Mullen | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | Josephine Gordon | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 9-11 · tight 82/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 18/09/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/10/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |