Roaring Ralph
6yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 5 · OR 68
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Newcastle | Rhys Elliott | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | Southwell | Sean Kirrane | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | Mark Winn | 5 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | Joanna Mason | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | Sean Kirrane | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | Connor Beasley | 4 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 24/07/2026 | 17th | 16/1 | 16% | 6% | -0.10 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 17/09/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/10/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/10/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |