Sugar Baby
8yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 11 · OR 65
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Redcar | Jack Nicholls | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Redcar | P Mulrennan | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | Billy Garritty | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | Ethan Tindall | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | Barry McHugh | 4 | 19th | 18th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | D Nolan | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/07/2026 | 19th | 28/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 05/08/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 15/09/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 16/10/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 27% | -0.36 |