The Green Man
7yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 6 · OR 67
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Newcastle | K Stott | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | Josephine Gordon | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | Cam Hardie | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | Luke Catton | 4 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | K Stott | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | L Morris | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.77 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 12/06/2026 | 16th | 33/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 12/10/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 40% | -0.15 |