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10

Tiriac

6yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 2 · OR 64

Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won twice over 5f here last winter off higher marks. Winless since but caught the eye off his reduced mark when fourth of 15 at Nottingham and didn't have the chance to build on that at Leicester 17 days ago (badly hampered). Remains one to be interested in, especially now returned to this venue.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 78 par15/043OR 784 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par23/054OR 755 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 73 · 5f Sta 133 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 71 · 5f7y Gd 131 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 71 par1/085OR 715 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 69 · 5f Hvy 134 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 68 · 5f3y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 68 par13/094OR 685 @ Nottingham 01/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 66 · 6f18y Goo 134 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Leicester 13/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 66 · 6f GS 134 · beat its mark13/10/2026 · OR 66 par13/105OR 66projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-13LeicesterO McSweeney56th6th0
2026-10-01NottinghamO McSweeney54th4th0
2026-09-13DoncasterRyan Sexton46th5th+1
2026-08-30BeverleyP Mulrennan55th5th0
2026-08-01HamiltonMark Winn56th6th0
2026-06-26NewcastleD Nolan55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0426/0613/0913/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20267th14/126%33%+0.07
16/05/20268th22/10%56%+0.56
23/05/202617th22/10%16%+0.16
26/06/20265th13/266%64%-0.02
01/08/20266th8/158%50%-0.08
30/08/20265th3/184%64%-0.21
13/09/20266th8/158%44%-0.13
01/10/20264th14/126%79%+0.52
13/10/20266th16/116%71%+0.55