13
Winter Crown
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 12 · OR 57
Newcastle · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Catterick | Billy Garritty | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | D Tudhope | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | J Garritty | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Southwell | J Garritty | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-12-05 | Newcastle | Billy Garritty | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Southwell | Jason Watson | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength23%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 21/11/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 05/12/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 21/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/10/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |