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5

Bomb Squad

8yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 8 · OR 61

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 14y

#7

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner on this surface a Wolverhampton and Southwell earlier in the year. Respectable sixth of 10 at former course (6f) back from a break 39 days ago and ought to be sharper now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 09/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 57 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark09/02/2026 · OR 57 par9/026OR 576 @ Newcastle 24/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 59 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 134 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 59 par13/036OR 596 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark17/03/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 61 par7/046OR 616 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 63 · 6f16y Std 134 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 63 par21/056OR 636 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 63 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 62 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 62 par21/096OR 62projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21WolverhamptonFinlay Bassett66th6th0
2026-06-28WolverhamptonFinley Marsh66th6th0
2026-05-21SouthwellHollie Doyle63rd3rd0
2026-04-23SouthwellHollie Doyle61st1st0
2026-04-07SouthwellBilly Loughnane62nd2nd0
2026-03-17WolverhamptonRyan Kavanagh66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0217/0321/0521/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 6-11 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength17%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/02/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
24/02/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
13/03/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
17/03/20266th11/486%38%-0.48
07/04/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
23/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/05/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
28/06/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
21/09/20266th40/10%44%+0.44