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Educating Rita

4yo Filly · 9-13 · Draw 7 · OR 64

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 14y

#8

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win since July 2024 but a reduced mark reflects that and she was having only her second outing on all-weather when 2¼ lengths third of 14 to Yaajooz over C&D 10 days ago. Should get closer to that reopposing rival on the revised terms.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 30/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 77 · 6f Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 77 par30/094OR 773 @ Musselburgh 13/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 75 · 7f15y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Wolverhampton 25/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 74 · 7f36y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 74 par25/105OR 744 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 73 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 70 par24/074OR 704 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 68 · 6f Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 68 par1/094OR 685 @ Catterick 30/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 66 · 7f6y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Newcastle 20/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 136 · beat its mark20/10/2026 · OR 64 par20/106OR 64projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-20NewcastleK Stott63rd3rd0
2026-09-30CatterickCam Hardie56th5th+1
2026-09-01RiponCam Hardie45th3rd+2
2026-08-15RiponCam Hardie412th10th+2
2026-07-24YorkCam Hardie43rd1st+2
2026-07-11YorkCam Hardie414th12th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0911/071/0920/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20255th10/147%67%+0.19
13/10/20253rd7/163%60%-0.03
25/10/202510th9/153%10%-0.43
11/07/202614th50/10%28%+0.28
24/07/20263rd50/10%90%+0.90
15/08/202612th25/10%42%+0.42
01/09/20265th13/266%43%-0.23
30/09/20266th18/15%38%+0.32
20/10/20263rd15/261%85%+0.24