IvyArcIvyArc
2

Jamaican Storm

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 10 · OR 65

Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Regular slow starter but has won twice here this year, latterly over this trip in July. Two creditable placed efforts since returning from a break and likely to give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 61 · 1m13y Std 131 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 61 par13/036OR 615 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 1m5y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f218y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 65 par10/045OR 655 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 6f195y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 64 par29/056OR 646 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 6f195y Goo 132 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 61 · 7f14y Sta 139 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 61 par31/076OR 615 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Newcastle 02/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 65 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark02/10/2026 · OR 65 par2/106OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02NewcastleP Mulrennan63rd3rd0
2026-09-05NewcastleD Nolan52nd1st+1
2026-07-31NewcastleO J Orr61st1st0
2026-06-15CarlisleP Mulrennan66th6th0
2026-05-29CarlisleP Mulrennan63rd3rd0
2026-05-07SouthwellP Mulrennan59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/037/0531/072/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 61/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
27/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
10/04/20264th15/261%75%+0.14
07/05/20269th9/153%20%-0.33
29/05/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
15/06/20266th11/271%29%-0.42
31/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
05/09/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15
02/10/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08