Lanarra
3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 53
Newcastle · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 14y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Newcastle | J P Sullivan | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | Newcastle | J P Sullivan | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | J P Sullivan | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | J P Sullivan | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | A Mullen | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | J P Sullivan | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 02/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 16/10/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |